Climate change

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Climate is changing on breeding & wintering grounds

Global climate change now permeates every aspect of our lives, and scientists are scrambling to understand how it will impact species ranges, migratory pathways, and phenology.

  • In North America, some bird species have moved their ranges northward as much as 13 km/year!

Climate is affected differently across the globe, and migratory animals may be at risk across multiple locations and seasons throughout the annual cycle.

  • Many tropical areas are experiencing severe declines in precipitation
  • Temperate regions are experiencing extreme temperatures increases

Seasonal interactions

Carry-over effects between seasons complicate the matter and scientists must consider climatic changes throughout the yearly cycle. Individuals may be even less resilient to climate change on the breeding grounds because of constraints imposed during the winter season.

  • Poor reproductive effort may be a result of climate on the wintering ground, independent of warming temperatures on breeding areas
  • Winter precipitation in the tropics can influence subsequent condition and reproductive output in songbirds

It is crucial to investigate climate change impacts throughout the entire annual cycle using the same individuals or linked populations. Otherwise, we cannot hope to understand species vulnerability and how they might respond to environmental changes.

We need to act now . . . but

Federal agencies and non-governmental groups are prioritizing and developing management plans for species (e.g., USFWS Landscape Conservation Cooperatives), but they do not have complete life cycle information. These organizations need advice on habitat acquisition, recovery plans, and habitat corridors. Migratory connectivity can help determine:

  1. Which species are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
  2. At what stage of the annual cycle they are most affected
  3. The predicted climate and habitat changes for linked populations

Scientists are just beginning to scratch the surface of this complex question of how animals will respond to climate change. Many species are already responding, and there are numerous hypotheses predicting future changes.

  • Advanced breeding seasons due to mild winters and early springs resulting in differential reproductive success
  • Differential breeding success due to changing ecosystem dynamics, which may affect complex interspecific interactions
  • Shift in species distributions and migration pathways

The challenge

Unfortunately, migratory connectivity data are not available for most species, even those of conservation concern (Van Pol et al. 2010). This research is a tremendous undertaking, however, the grave climatic and environmental changes that we now face call for a far greater effort than has ever been launched in the past.

References

  1. Berry, P.M., M.D.A. Rounsevell, P.A. Harrison, and E. Audsley. 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation. Environmental Science and Policy 9: 189-204.
  2. Both, C., C.A.M. Van Turnhout, R.G. Bijlsma, H. Siepel, A.J. Van Strein, and R.P.B. Foppen. 2010. Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 277: 1259-1266.
  3. Carroll, C. 2010. Role of climatic niche models in focal-species-based conservation planning: Assessing potential effects of climate change on Northern Spotted Owl in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Biological Conservation 143: 1432-1437.
  4. Collins, C.D., B.J. McGill, R.D. Holt.(in press) Spatial and temporal paths to extinction in North American breeding birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA.
  5. Crick, H. 2004. The impact of climate change on birds. Ibis 146: 48-56. Gienapp, P. 2008. Climate change impacts: birds. In: Encyclopedia of Life Sciences. John Wiley and Sons, Ltd: Chichester, England.
  6. Haig, S.M. (in press) Potential impacts of climate change on birds in Oregon. In: 2010 Oregon Climate Assessment (P.W. Mote, ed.). Oregon State University Press.
  7. Haig, S.M., D.W. Mehlman, and L.W. Oring. 1998. Avian movements and wetland connectivity in landscape conservation. Conservation Biology 12: 749-758.
  8. Haig, S.M., and L.W. Oring. 1988. Distribution and dispersal in the Piping Plover. Auk 105: 630-638.
  9. Hitch, A.T., and P.L. Leberg. 2007. Breeding distributions of North American bird species moving north as a result of climate change. Conservation Biology 21:534-539.
  10. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]. 2007.Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II, and III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland.
  11. Jetz W., Ç.H. Sekerciojlu, and J.E.M. Watson. 2007. Ecological correlates and conservation implications of overestimating species geographic ranges. Conservation Biology 22:110-119.
  12. Jiguet, F., A.S. Gadot, R. Julliard, S.E. Newson, and D. Covet. 2007. Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change. Global Change Biology 13:1672-1684.
  13. La Sorte, F.A., and W. Jetz. 2010. Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections. Journal of Experimental Biology. 213:862-869.
  14. Marra, P.P., K.A. Hobson and R.T. Holmes. 1998. Linking winter and summer events in a migratory bird using stable carbon isotopes. Science 282:1884-1886.
  15. McRae, B.H., N.H. Schumaker, R.B. McKane, R.T. Busing, A.M. Solomon, and C.A. Burdick. 2008. A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change. Ecological Modeling 219:77-91.
  16. Moller, A.P., W. Fielder, and P. Berthold, eds. 2004. Birds and climate change. Advances in Ecological Research 35.
  17. North American Bird Conservation Initiative, U.S. Committee, 2009. The State of the Birds. United States of America. U.S. Department of the Interior: Washington, DC.
  18. North American Bird Conservation Initiative, U.S. Committee, 2010. The State of the Birds: Report on Climate Change, United States of America. U.S. Department of the Interior: Washington, DC.
  19. Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology and Evolutionary Systematics. 37:637–69
  20. Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
  21. Povilitis, A., and K. Suckling. 2010. Addressing climate change threats to endangered species in U.S. recovery plans. Conservation Biology 24: 372-376.
  22. Rodriguez, J.P. 2002. Range contraction in declining North American bird populations. Ecological Applications 12:238-248.
  23. Sala O.E., F.S. Chapin., J.J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomsfield, R. Dirzo, et al. 2000. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287: 1770-1774.
  24. Sirami C., L. Brotons and J.L. Martin. 2009. Do bird spatial distribution pattern reflect population trends in changing landscapes? Landscape Ecology 24:893-906.
  25. Turner, B.L., R.E. Kasperson, P.A. Matsone, J.J McCarthy, R.W. Corellg, L. Christensene, N. Eckley, J.X. Kasperson, A. Luerse, M.L. Martellog, C. Polskya, A. Pulsiphera, and A. Schille. 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 100: 8074-8079.
  26. Van De Pol, M., Y. Vindenes. B-E Saether, S. Engen, B.J. Ens, K. Oosterbeek, and J.M. Tinbergen. 2010. Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 9: 1192-1204.
  27. Webster, M.S., P.P. Marra, S.M. Haig, S. Bensch, and R.T. Holmes. 2002. Links between worlds: unraveling migratory connectivity. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17: 76-83.

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